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Shock result as Al-Ahli Jeddah defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Shabab 3-2 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.03 xG and Al Shabab 1.04 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Shabab outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.04 / defence 0.78 against Al Shabab attack 0.96 / defence 0.72, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 35% | Draw 30% | Al Shabab 35%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%, Al Shabab 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Shabab's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.43. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights