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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Riyadh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Riyadh finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.44 xG and Al Riyadh 1.14 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.18 / defence 0.93 against Al Riyadh attack 0.85 / defence 1.39, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 65% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 16%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%, Al Riyadh 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights