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Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Al Riyadh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Riyadh 5-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.71 xG and Al Riyadh 1.14 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Riyadh landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.17 / defence 0.87 against Al Riyadh attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 26%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%, Al Riyadh 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights