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Shock result as Al-Ahli Jeddah defy the odds to beat Al-Nassr 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Nassr 3-2 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.38 xG and Al-Nassr 1.54 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.10 / defence 0.80 against Al-Nassr attack 1.32 / defence 0.87, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 34% | Draw 26% | Al-Nassr 41%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al-Ahli Jeddah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%, Al-Nassr 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.98 PPG, Al-Nassr 2.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights