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Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Kholood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Kholood 3-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.64 xG and Al Kholood 0.96 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Kholood landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.56 / defence 0.72 against Al Kholood attack 0.95 / defence 1.11, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 72% | Draw 17% | Al Kholood 11%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%, Al Kholood 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al Kholood's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights