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Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Khaleej Saihat 4-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.99 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.37 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.18 / defence 0.82 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.16 / defence 1.11, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 52% | Draw 22% | Al Khaleej Saihat 26%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%, Al Khaleej Saihat 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.32 average — above their attacking norm. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights