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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC finished level at 3-3 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.76 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.39 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.11 / defence 0.85 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.18 / defence 1.03, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 31%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.97 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights