Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record at King Abdullah Sports City: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hazm (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Al-Ahli Jeddah's favour (2.40 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ahli Jeddah and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 44% versus Al-Hazm 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 56% | Al-Hazm 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.40 xG and Al-Hazm 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.606 / defence 0.645 | Al-Hazm attack 0.915 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.309. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.606 — their λ of 2.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.645 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 39 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 72% | Draw 20% | Al-Hazm 9%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.39 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Hazm 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (72%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% | Al-Hazm 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 11 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 72% | Draw 20% | Al-Hazm 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.40 / Al-Hazm 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.606 / def 0.645 | Al-Hazm attack 0.915 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Al-Hazm xG
51%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 11 September 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 72% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 9% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 5W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 1.61x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.92x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
72%
1.39
20%
5.12
9%
11.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.18
0.77
Al-Hazm xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
11.72
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
9%
11.08
Win to Nil
33%
3.01
1%
129.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.77 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.31 PPG on a 28W 6D 5L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm's form line: 12W 11D 16L from 39 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.68 PPG from 19 outings (16W 3D 0L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 4W 7D 8L from 19 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.10 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 28W 6D 5L in their last 39 games (2.31 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 12W 11D 16L in their last 39 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.68 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-4 on 22 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 53%, Al-Hazm 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 58% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 58% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 58% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.