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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al-Fayha.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Al-Fayha to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 30 December 2025 at 15:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 5W 4D 1L at King Abdullah Sports City — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Fayha — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

Al-Ahli Jeddah are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Ahli Jeddah have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Al-Fayha have managed just 1 wins.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2025, ended 5–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

The historical record gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Al-Fayha trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% versus Al-Fayha 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% | Al-Fayha 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.81 xG and Al-Fayha 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.090 / defence 0.926 | Al-Fayha attack 0.951 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.448. Data: 44 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 44 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fayha 3.85. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Al-Fayha 50% BTTS from recent games.

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