🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Ahli Jeddah.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-3 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.15 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.54 / defence 0.82 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.99 / defence 0.91, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 61% | Draw 20% | Al-Ettifaq 19%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ettifaq win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%, Al-Ettifaq 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Al-Ettifaq winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights