Al-Adalah 0-2 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Adalah vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Adalah and Damac meet at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 October 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Al-Adalah (all games): 1W 1D 5L across 7 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.57 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.57 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Adalah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Al-Adalah have gone 1W 0D 2L this season (3 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Damac have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Damac away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Damac are 0.73 PPG clear of Al-Adalah in recent Pro League fixtures (1.30 vs 0.57). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Al-Adalah half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Adalah 43% versus Damac 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Adalah 57% | Damac 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Adalah 1.03 xG and Damac 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Adalah attack 0.778 / defence 1.233 | Damac attack 0.970 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.100. Al-Adalah's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Al-Adalah games / 37 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Adalah 29% | Draw 28% | Damac 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Adalah 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Damac 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Adalah 33% | Damac 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Adalah vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Adalah 29% | Draw 28% | Damac 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Adalah 1.03 / Damac 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Adalah attack 0.778 / def 1.233 | Damac attack 0.970 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Damac (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Al-Adalah xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Damac xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Adalah vs Damac kick off?
Al-Adalah vs Damac kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Adalah vs Damac?
Al-Adalah 0 - 2 Damac.
Where is Al-Adalah vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Adalah vs Damac part of?
Al-Adalah vs Damac is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Adalah vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Adalah a 29% chance of winning, Damac a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Adalah vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Adalah and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Adalah vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Damac?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Adalah and Damac in?
Al-Adalah (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 1.71 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Damac (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Adalah's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.97x) against Al-Adalah's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
29%
3.46
28%
3.53
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Al-Adalah xG
Total xG
2.35
1.31
Damac xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
8%
12.88
15%
6.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Adalah vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Adalah and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Al-Adalah and 1.31 for Damac, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Adalah vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Al-Adalah have picked up 0.57 PPG on a 1W 1D 5L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Adalah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Damac's form line: 3W 3D 1L from 7 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Damac are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Adalah.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Adalah have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.57 PPG overall — Al-Adalah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Damac have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Damac's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Adalah are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Damac in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Adalah
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Adalah and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Adalah have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Damac have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Adalah at home or Damac away?
Al-Adalah's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Adalah at home: 1.00 PPG; Damac away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Adalah
1
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Damac?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Adalah have won 0, Damac have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Adalah and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Damac 2-2 Al-Adalah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Adalah and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Al-Adalah, 100% for Damac — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Adalah and 67% for Damac. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Adalah have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Adalah home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Adalah play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Al-Adalah's games and 100% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Adalah vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Adalah's matches and 67% of Damac's.
Do Al-Adalah and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Adalah have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Damac in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Adalah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Adalah 0-2 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Adalah 1.03 xG and Damac 1.31 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Adalah fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Adalah attack 0.78 / defence 1.23 against Damac attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Adalah 29% | Draw 28% | Damac 43%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Adalah 57%, Damac 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Adalah's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Damac's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.57. Form held, and they took the win. Damac (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.