Al-Adalah 2-2 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Adalah at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Adalah vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Adalah and Al Taee meet at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 16 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Adalah's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Adalah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Adalah have posted 2W 1D 4L at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Al-Adalah are significantly better at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Taee have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taee have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Adalah lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Al Taee winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Al-Adalah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Al Taee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Adalah 44% versus Al Taee 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Adalah 50% | Al Taee 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Adalah 1.12 xG and Al Taee 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Adalah attack 0.700 / defence 1.174 | Al Taee attack 0.772 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.142. Al-Adalah's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Al-Adalah games / 47 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Adalah 38% | Draw 29% | Al Taee 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Adalah 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Al Taee 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Adalah as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Adalah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Adalah 43% | Al Taee 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Adalah vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Adalah 38% | Draw 29% | Al Taee 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Al-Adalah 1.12 / Al Taee 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Adalah attack 0.700 / def 1.174 | Al Taee attack 0.772 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Al-Adalah (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Al-Adalah xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Al Taee xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Adalah vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Adalah vs Al Taee kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 16 February 2023 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Adalah vs Al Taee?
Al-Adalah 2 - 2 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Adalah vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Adalah vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Adalah vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Adalah vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Adalah a 38% chance of winning, Al Taee a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Adalah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Adalah vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Adalah and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Adalah vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Al Taee?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Adalah 0W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 1W.
What form are Al-Adalah and Al Taee in?
Al-Adalah (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Al Taee (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Adalah's attack at 0.70x the league average against Al Taee's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (0.77x) against Al-Adalah's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 16/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Adalah Win
38%
2.67
29%
3.40
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Al-Adalah xG
Total xG
2.16
1.04
Al Taee xG
2.67
38%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Adalah vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al-Adalah and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Al-Adalah and 1.04 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Adalah vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Adalah's recent record stands at 2W 3D 11L from 16 games, a 0.56 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Adalah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taee, meanwhile, have gone 6W 0D 10L across 16 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taee by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Adalah heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Adalah have managed 2W 1D 4L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.56 PPG overall — Al-Adalah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Taee's away record stands at 1W 0D 6L across 7 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taee's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Adalah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Adalah are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.19 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Al Taee in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Adalah
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Adalah and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Adalah have gone 2W 3D 11L in their last 16 games (0.56 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 6W 0D 10L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Adalah at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Adalah's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Adalah at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Al-Adalah or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Adalah have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Al Taee in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Adalah
1
Draws
1
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Al Taee?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Adalah have won 0, Al Taee have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Adalah and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2023, when Al-Adalah 2-2 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al-Adalah and Al Taee?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Al Taee see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Adalah 43%, Al Taee 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al-Adalah) and 43% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al-Adalah have failed to score in 57% of games; Al Taee in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Adalah home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Adalah play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al-Adalah's recent matches and 29% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Adalah vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al-Adalah's recent games and 43% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Adalah and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Adalah have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Adalah and Al Taee share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Adalah and Al Taee finished level at 2-2 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Adalah 1.12 xG and Al Taee 1.04 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Adalah beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Taee outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Adalah attack 0.70 / defence 1.17 against Al Taee attack 0.77 / defence 1.10, drawn from 16/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Adalah 38% | Draw 29% | Al Taee 33%, with Al-Adalah to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Adalah 50%, Al Taee 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Adalah's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taee's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taee arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Adalah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm. Al Taee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.