Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Abha and Al-Qadisiyah FC meet at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 15 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Abha's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games (0.17 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 2.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.17 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Abha's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium this term (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the stronger side — 2.53 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 0.17). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Abha have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Abha half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Qadisiyah FC half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 67% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 67% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 0.69 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.704 / defence 1.144 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.408 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Abha's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.408 — the away xG of 2.07 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Abha games / 40 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 9% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 68%. Fair-value odds: Abha 11.11 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (68%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Abha 67% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 9% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 46% | xG Abha 0.69 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.704 / def 1.144 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.408 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Abha xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
46%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 15 April 2027 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
Where is Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 9% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 68% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Abha and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Abha and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Abha (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 2.17 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Abha's attack at 0.70x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (1.41x) against Abha's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 2.07.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
9%
10.91
23%
4.29
68%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
0 – 3
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Abha xG
Total xG
2.76
2.07
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
10.91
9%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
1.48
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
13%
7.94
50%
1.99
Win to Nil
1%
86.59
34%
2.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 13.1 | 13.6 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Abha and 2.07 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Abha come into this having played 6 games, going 0W 1D 5L for 0.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.50 PPG from 6 outings (5W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.33 PPG clear of Abha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Abha's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 3.00 points per game from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 2.50 PPG overall record — Al-Qadisiyah FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Abha are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.17 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Early Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 games (0.17 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 5W 0D 1L in their last 6 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 0.33 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 67%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Abha and 33% for Al-Qadisiyah FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 67%; Abha have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Abha's recent matches and 33% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Abha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Abha's recent games and 33% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.