Abha 3-2 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Abha host Al Baten at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Abha stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Baten have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Baten have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Abha 0.80 PPG, Al Baten 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Abha have won 2, Al Baten 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with Abha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Abha in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al Baten in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 56% versus Al Baten 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 52% | Al Baten 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.78 xG and Al Baten 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.983 / defence 1.051 | Al Baten attack 0.678 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.317. Al Baten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Abha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Abha games / 52 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 56% | Draw 25% | Al Baten 19%. Fair-value odds: Abha 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Al Baten 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Abha (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Abha at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Abha 70% | Al Baten 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 56% | Draw 25% | Al Baten 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Abha 1.78 / Al Baten 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.983 / def 1.051 | Al Baten attack 0.678 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Abha (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Abha xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Al Baten xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al Baten kick off?
Abha vs Al Baten kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al Baten?
Abha 3 - 2 Al Baten.
Where is Abha vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al Baten part of?
Abha vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 56% chance of winning, Al Baten a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Abha and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Baten?
Record (3 meetings): Abha 2W | Draws 0 | Al Baten 1W.
What form are Abha and Al Baten in?
Abha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Al Baten (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Abha's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Al Baten's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Al Baten's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
56%
1.78
25%
3.97
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Abha xG
Total xG
2.72
0.94
Al Baten xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
3%
32.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Abha and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Abha and 0.94 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al Baten?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Abha come into this having played 52 games, going 16W 11D 25L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Baten sit at 0.87 PPG from 52 outings (11W 12D 29L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Abha on 1.13 PPG, Al Baten on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Abha's home form reads 11W 8D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Baten have taken 0.46 points per game from 26 outings (2W 6D 18L). That's a step down from their 0.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Baten's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Abha are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.90 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 16W 11D 25L in their last 52 games (1.13 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 11W 12D 29L in their last 52 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al Baten away?
Abha's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.58 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Abha go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Abha's record when hosting Al Baten specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Abha
0
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Abha have won 3, Al Baten have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when Abha 3-2 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al Baten?
Abha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 62%, Al Baten 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Abha) and 46% (Al Baten).
On the defensive side: Al Baten in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al Baten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Abha's recent matches and 38% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Abha vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Abha's recent games and 46% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al Baten tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Abha edge out Al Baten 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al Baten 3-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.78 xG and Al Baten 0.94 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Abha beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Baten outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Al Baten attack 0.68 / defence 1.27, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 56% | Draw 25% | Al Baten 19%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 52%, Al Baten 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al Baten's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.13 PPG, Al Baten 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Abha win broke the near-deadlock. Abha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Al Baten (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.