🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium plays host to Abha versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Thursday 11 February 2027 at 20:00 UTC.

Form

Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ahli Jeddah haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Abha 1W, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W, 1D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 1–5 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.15 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.095 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 0 Abha games / 34 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Abha 24% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%. Fair-value odds: Abha 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.96. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights