Abha 1-0 Al-Adalah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al-Adalah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Abha host Al-Adalah at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 2 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Abha stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's home record at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Adalah have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Adalah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Adalah away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Abha at 0.80 PPG versus Al-Adalah's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Abha, 0 for Al-Adalah and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2022, ended 2–0 with Abha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Abha trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Al-Adalah trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 62% versus Al-Adalah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 67% | Al-Adalah 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 2.05 xG and Al-Adalah 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 1.069 / defence 1.125 | Al-Adalah attack 0.890 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.275. Al-Adalah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Abha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Abha games / 24 Al-Adalah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 55% | Draw 22% | Al-Adalah 23%. Fair-value odds: Abha 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Adalah 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Abha (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Abha are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Abha 80% | Al-Adalah 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Adalah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 55% | Draw 22% | Al-Adalah 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG Abha 2.05 / Al-Adalah 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 1.069 / def 1.125 | Al-Adalah attack 0.890 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Abha (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Al-Adalah xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Adalah kick off?
Abha vs Al-Adalah kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 2 May 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Adalah?
Abha 1 - 0 Al-Adalah.
Where is Abha vs Al-Adalah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Adalah part of?
Abha vs Al-Adalah is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Adalah?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 55% chance of winning, Al-Adalah a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Adalah?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Abha and Al-Adalah will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Adalah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Adalah?
Record (1 meetings): Abha 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Adalah 0W.
What form are Abha and Al-Adalah in?
Abha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Al-Adalah (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Abha's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Al-Adalah's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Adalah's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
55%
1.83
22%
4.49
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Abha xG
Total xG
3.33
1.28
Al-Adalah xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
3%
33.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Adalah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Adalah expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Abha and 1.28 for Al-Adalah, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Adalah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Abha come into this having played 24 games, going 8W 3D 13L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Adalah sit at 0.88 PPG from 24 outings (5W 6D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Adalah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Abha on 1.12 PPG, Al-Adalah on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Abha's home form reads 5W 3D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Adalah have taken 0.58 points per game from 12 outings (1W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Abha are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Adalah are on 0.88 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al-Adalah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Adalah in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 8W 3D 13L in their last 24 games (1.12 PPG), while Al-Adalah have gone 5W 6D 13L in their last 24 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Adalah away?
Abha's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Adalah away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Abha
0
Draws
0
Al-Adalah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Adalah?
From 2 meetings on record, Abha have won 2, Al-Adalah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Adalah last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2023, when Abha 1-0 Al-Adalah.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Adalah?
Abha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Abha at 75%, Al-Adalah at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Abha and 58% for Al-Adalah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Adalah in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Adalah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Adalah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Abha's games and 58% of Al-Adalah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Adalah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Abha's matches and 58% of Al-Adalah's.
Do Abha and Al-Adalah tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Adalah in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Abha edge out Al-Adalah 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al-Adalah 1-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 2.05 xG and Al-Adalah 1.28 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Abha fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Adalah landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 1.07 / defence 1.12 against Al-Adalah attack 0.89 / defence 1.34, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 55% | Draw 22% | Al-Adalah 23%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 67%, Al-Adalah 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Adalah's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.12 PPG, Al-Adalah 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Abha win broke the near-deadlock. Abha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Adalah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.