Zenit 0-0 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates CSKA Moscow at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zenit vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Zenit welcome CSKA Moscow to Gazprom Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gazprom Arena, Zenit have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
CSKA Moscow — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Zenit) versus 1.80 (CSKA Moscow). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Zenit, 2 for CSKA Moscow and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Zenit winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Zenit in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
CSKA Moscow in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 48% versus CSKA Moscow 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 50% | CSKA Moscow 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.16 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.035 / defence 1.027 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.070 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.269. Data: 48 Zenit games / 48 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zenit 28% | Draw 33% | CSKA Moscow 39%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | CSKA Moscow 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zenit 60% | CSKA Moscow 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Gazprom Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 28% | Draw 33% | CSKA Moscow 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Zenit 1.16 / CSKA Moscow 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.035 / def 1.027 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.070 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
1.39
CSKA Moscow xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zenit vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Zenit vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Gazprom Arena.
What was the final score in Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Zenit 0 - 0 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Zenit vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Gazprom Arena.
What competition is Zenit vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Zenit vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 28% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Zenit and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Zenit vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and CSKA Moscow?
Record (6 meetings): Zenit 3W | Draws 1 | CSKA Moscow 2W.
What form are Zenit and CSKA Moscow in?
Zenit (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zenit's attack rating (1.03) and CSKA Moscow's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
28%
3.56
33%
3.04
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Zenit xG
Total xG
2.56
1.39
CSKA Moscow xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
7%
14.33
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Zenit and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Zenit and 1.39 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zenit's recent record stands at 29W 9D 10L from 48 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 11L across 48 games — 1.65 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zenit on 2.00 PPG, CSKA Moscow on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zenit have managed 14W 4D 6L from 24 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 10W 9D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Zenit are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.75 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zenit and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 29W 9D 10L in their last 48 games (2.00 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 21W 16D 11L in their last 48 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Zenit's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 1.92 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Zenit or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Zenit's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Zenit
3
Draws
3
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Zenit have won 4, CSKA Moscow have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Zenit 1-2 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and CSKA Moscow?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zenit see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 46%, CSKA Moscow 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Zenit) and 54% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; CSKA Moscow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zenit play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Zenit's recent matches and 62% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zenit vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Zenit's recent games and 54% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zenit and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Zenit have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zenit's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 19, as Zenit and CSKA Moscow drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.16 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.39 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zenit fell 1.2 short of their projected output. CSKA Moscow landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.03 / defence 1.03 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.07 / defence 0.81, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 28% | Draw 33% | CSKA Moscow 39%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 50%, CSKA Moscow 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zenit 2.00 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.