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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Zenit run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Rubin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zenit beat Rubin 4-0 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.41 xG and Rubin 1.12 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Zenit beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rubin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against Rubin attack 1.11 / defence 1.06, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zenit 41% | Draw 32% | Rubin 27%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 49%, Rubin 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zenit's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Rubin's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.45. That form edge translated into the three points. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Rubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights