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Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out FC Sochi 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zenit beat FC Sochi 2-1 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.91 xG and FC Sochi 0.56 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.14 / defence 0.71 against FC Sochi attack 0.76 / defence 1.23, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zenit 70% | Draw 20% | FC Sochi 10%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 40%, FC Sochi 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zenit's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Sochi's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights