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Dominant Zenit run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC Krasnodar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zenit beat FC Krasnodar 4-1 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.21 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.14 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Zenit beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.14 / defence 0.85 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.27 / defence 0.72, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zenit 34% | Draw 34% | FC Krasnodar 31%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 49%, FC Krasnodar 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zenit's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zenit 1.96 PPG, FC Krasnodar 2.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zenit win broke the near-deadlock. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights