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Dominant Zenit run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Dinamo Makhachkala.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zenit beat Dinamo Makhachkala 4-0 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.71 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.72 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Zenit beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.15 / defence 0.87 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.68 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zenit 60% | Draw 27% | Dinamo Makhachkala 14%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 51%, Dinamo Makhachkala 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zenit's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights