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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zenit and CSKA Moscow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zenit and CSKA Moscow finished level at 1-1 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.34 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.01 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.23 / defence 0.85 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.93 / defence 0.79, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Zenit 42% | Draw 32% | CSKA Moscow 26%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 53%, CSKA Moscow 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zenit's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zenit 2.19 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights