Zenit vs Akron – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Zenit's attack at 1.11x the league average against Akron's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Akron's attack (0.72x) against Zenit's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
62%
1.61
25%
3.98
13%
7.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Zenit xG
Total xG
2.94
0.88
Akron xG
1.61
62%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
7.90
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
13%
7.83
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
2%
61.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Akron?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Zenit and Akron expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Zenit and 0.88 for Akron, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Akron?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.