Ural 1-4 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ural at 34%, yet in-form Zenit provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ural vs Zenit fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ekaterinburg Arena plays host to Ural versus Zenit in Premier League (matchday 20). Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 11:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Ural have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ural at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Ural are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Zenit (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Zenit's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Zenit arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Zenit, who have 4 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Ural 0–4 Zenit — a Zenit win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Zenit have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Ural goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Zenit goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 45% versus Zenit 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 53% | Zenit 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.29 xG and Zenit 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.998 / defence 1.144 | Zenit attack 1.201 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 0.941. Zenit have an above-average attack rating of 1.201, which lifts their away xG to 1.29. Data: built from Ural's last 49 games and Zenit's last 49.
Result probabilities: Ural 34% | Draw 33% | Zenit 33%. Fair-value odds: Ural 2.99 | Draw 3.02 | Zenit 3.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ural as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zenit (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ural if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ural 50% (last 10 home games) | Zenit 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, matchday 20 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 34% | Draw 33% | Zenit 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Ural 1.29 / Zenit 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.998 / def 1.144 | Zenit attack 1.201 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.329 / away 0.941 • Poisson stance: Ural (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Zenit xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ural vs Zenit FAQs
What time does Ural vs Zenit kick off?
Ural vs Zenit kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Zenit?
Ural 1 - 4 Zenit.
Where is Ural vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Zenit part of?
Ural vs Zenit is a Premier League fixture (matchday 20) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 34% chance of winning, Zenit a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ural the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ural and Zenit will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ural vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ural's attack rating (1.00) and Zenit's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zenit's attack (1.20x) against Ural's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from Ural's last 49 games and Zenit's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ural Win
34%
2.99
33%
3.02
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Ural xG
Total xG
2.59
1.29
Zenit xG
2.99
34%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
9%
10.87
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ural vs Zenit Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ural and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Ural and 1.29 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ural's recent record stands at 15W 10D 24L from 49 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Zenit, meanwhile, have gone 32W 11D 6L across 49 games — 2.18 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ural heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ural have managed 9W 4D 11L from their last 24 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zenit's away record stands at 13W 8D 3L across their last 24 away games, a 1.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ural are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.22 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Zenit in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
Zenit
Blended
Ural (Home) vs Zenit (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ural
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Ural vs Zenit Form FAQs
What form are Ural and Zenit in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 15W 10D 24L in their last 49 games (1.12 PPG), while Zenit have gone 32W 11D 6L in their last 49 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 1.29 PPG; Zenit away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Ural or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ural have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Zenit in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Ural and Zenit, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Zenit have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zenit won Ural 0-4 Zenit on 28 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ural have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Zenit — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ural
1
Draws
5
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Ural vs Zenit H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Zenit?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Ural have won 0, Zenit have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ural and Zenit last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2024: Ural 1-4 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 54%, Zenit 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Ural) and 42% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: Zenit in 46%; Ural have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ural vs Zenit Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ural and Zenit matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ural's recent matches and 50% of Zenit's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ural and Zenit matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Ural's recent games and 42% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ural and Zenit matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Ural's recent matches and 67% of Zenit's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zenit run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Ural.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Ural 1-4 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.29 xG and Zenit 1.29 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Zenit outscored their 1.29 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 1.00 / defence 1.14 against Zenit attack 1.20 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 34% | Draw 33% | Zenit 33%, with Ural to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Zenit win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 53%, Zenit 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Zenit's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Ural (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.