Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Shock result as Dinamo Makhachkala defy the odds to beat Ural 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dinamo Makhachkala beat Ural 0-1 at Yekaterinburg Arena, Final, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.22 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 1.03 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ural fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 41% | Draw 29% | Dinamo Makhachkala 31%, with Ural to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Dinamo Makhachkala win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 50%, Dinamo Makhachkala 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Ural arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Dinamo Makhachkala winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ural managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.