Ural 0-2 Akron – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ural at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ural vs Akron fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akron make the trip to Ekaterinburg Arena to face Ural in Premier League, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Wednesday 29 May 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Ural (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Ekaterinburg Arena, Ural have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.70 xG and Akron 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 1.018 / defence 1.219 | Akron attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.292. Data: 60 Ural games / 0 Akron games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 46% | Draw 24% | Akron 30%. Fair-value odds: Ural 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Akron 3.33. Ural hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ural as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ural if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Akron | Competition: Premier League, Relegation Round | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 May 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 46% | Draw 24% | Akron 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Ural 1.70 / Akron 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 1.018 / def 1.219 | Akron attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Ural (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Akron xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs Akron kick off?
Ural vs Akron kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 29 May 2024 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Akron?
Ural 0 - 2 Akron.
Where is Ural vs Akron being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Akron part of?
Ural vs Akron is a Relegation Round fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Akron?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 46% chance of winning, Akron a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ural the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Akron?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ural and Akron will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs Akron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Akron?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ural and Akron in?
Ural (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Ural home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ural's attack rating (1.02) and Akron's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Akron's attack (0.85x) against Ural's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ural Win
46%
2.18
24%
4.19
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Ural xG
Total xG
3.03
1.34
Akron xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
6%
18.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Akron?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Ural and Akron expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Ural and 1.34 for Akron, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Akron?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Pre-Season
Akron
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ural
0
Draws
1
Akron
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Akron?
From 2 meetings on record, Ural have won 1, Akron have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ural and Akron last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2024, when Akron 1-2 Ural.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Akron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Akron cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ural.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akron beat Ural 0-2 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.70 xG and Akron 1.34 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ural fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 1.02 / defence 1.22 against Akron attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 46% | Draw 24% | Akron 30%, with Ural to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Akron win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.