Spartak Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Spartak Moscow's attack rating (1.44) and Nizhny Novgorod's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nizhny Novgorod's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
69%
1.44
20%
4.94
10%
9.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
3.47
0.96
Nizhny Novgorod xG
1.44
69%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
9.56
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
8%
12.32
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
1%
117.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 0.96 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.