Spartak Moscow 3-0 Fakel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spartak Moscow at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spartak Moscow vs Fakel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Spartak Moscow welcome Fakel to Lukoil Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Spartak Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spartak Moscow at Lukoil Arena this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lukoil Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fakel — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Fakel have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fakel away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Spartak Moscow carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Spartak Moscow, 2 for Fakel and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Fakel winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Spartak Moscow in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Fakel in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 41% versus Fakel 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Spartak Moscow 47% | Fakel 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.75 xG and Fakel 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.098 / defence 0.728 | Fakel attack 0.732 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.305. Spartak Moscow's defence rating of 0.728 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Spartak Moscow games / 34 Fakel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 61% | Draw 26% | Fakel 13%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Fakel 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Spartak Moscow (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 30% | Fakel 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Fakel | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Lukoil Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 61% | Draw 26% | Fakel 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.75 / Fakel 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.098 / def 0.728 | Fakel attack 0.732 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Fakel xG
43%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Fakel kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Fakel kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Lukoil Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
Spartak Moscow 3 - 0 Fakel.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Fakel being played?
The match is being played at Lukoil Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Fakel part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Fakel is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 61% chance of winning, Fakel a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Fakel will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Fakel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Fakel?
Record (4 meetings): Spartak Moscow 2W | Draws 0 | Fakel 2W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Fakel in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Fakel (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spartak Moscow's attack at 1.10x the league average against Fakel's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fakel's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
61%
1.64
26%
3.78
13%
7.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.45
0.70
Fakel xG
1.64
61%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
7.96
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
2%
45.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Fakel expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 0.70 for Fakel, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Spartak Moscow have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 16W 9D 9L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fakel's form line: 7W 12D 15L from 34 games, 0.97 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Fakel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Spartak Moscow are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fakel.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spartak Moscow have posted 2.18 PPG from 17 outings (11W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Spartak Moscow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fakel have gone 3W 4D 10L from 17 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Fakel are on 0.68 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Fakel in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Early Season
Fakel
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Fakel in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 16W 9D 9L in their last 34 games (1.68 PPG), while Fakel have gone 7W 12D 15L in their last 34 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Fakel away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 2.18 PPG; Fakel away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Spartak Moscow or Fakel been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Fakel in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 16 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2022, when Spartak Moscow won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting Fakel specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Spartak Moscow
1
Draws
2
Fakel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Fakel?
From 7 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 4, Fakel have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Fakel last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2026, when Spartak Moscow 1-0 Fakel.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Fakel?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 41%, Fakel 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Spartak Moscow) and 41% (Fakel).
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Fakel in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Fakel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Fakel?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Spartak Moscow's recent matches and 41% of Fakel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Fakel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Spartak Moscow's recent games and 41% of Fakel's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spartak Moscow and Fakel tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Fakel in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Spartak Moscow run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fakel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Fakel 3-0 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.75 xG and Fakel 0.70 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Spartak Moscow beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.10 / defence 0.73 against Fakel attack 0.73 / defence 1.19, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 61% | Draw 26% | Fakel 13%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 47%, Fakel 24%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fakel's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Fakel (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.