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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as CSKA Moscow edge out Spartak Moscow 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

CSKA Moscow beat Spartak Moscow 1-2 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.12 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.20 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. CSKA Moscow outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.15 / defence 0.99 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.10 / defence 0.65, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 31% | Draw 34% | CSKA Moscow 35%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 54%, CSKA Moscow 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.82 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights