Rubin 4-0 Ural – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Rubin at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rubin vs Ural encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rubin host Ural at Central'nyj stadion Kazan' in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 13 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Rubin — All Games: 3W 2D 1L from 6 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.83 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 0.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Rubin have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rubin at Central'nyj stadion Kazan' this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.83 — Rubin are significantly better at Central'nyj stadion Kazan' than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Ural have recorded 0W 2D 4L from 6 outings — 0.33 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Ural have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Rubin have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.83 vs 0.33) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Rubin in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Ural in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 50% versus Ural 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rubin 33% | Ural 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 1.17 xG and Ural 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.957 / defence 1.035 | Ural attack 0.611 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.067 / away 1.260. Data: 6 Rubin games / 6 Ural games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rubin 43% | Draw 33% | Ural 24%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Ural 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rubin at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rubin 67% | Ural 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Central'nyj stadion Kazan' • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 43% | Draw 33% | Ural 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Rubin 1.17 / Ural 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.957 / def 1.035 | Ural attack 0.611 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.067 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Rubin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Ural xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rubin vs Ural kick off?
Rubin vs Ural kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Central'nyj stadion Kazan'.
What was the final score in Rubin vs Ural?
Rubin 4 - 0 Ural.
Where is Rubin vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at Central'nyj stadion Kazan'.
What competition is Rubin vs Ural part of?
Rubin vs Ural is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 43% chance of winning, Ural a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Rubin and Ural will score (BTTS).
Will Rubin vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Ural?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rubin and Ural in?
Rubin (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Ural (all comps): 0W-2D-4L in 6 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rubin's attack at 0.96x the league average against Ural's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ural's attack versus Rubin's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rubin Win
43%
2.32
33%
3.00
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Rubin xG
Total xG
1.97
0.80
Ural xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
7%
13.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Rubin and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Rubin and 0.80 for Ural, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs Ural?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rubin's recent record stands at 3W 2D 1L from 6 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ural, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 4L across 6 games — 0.33 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ural, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rubin by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ural heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Rubin are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 0.33 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Early Season
Ural
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rubin and Ural in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Ural have gone 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 (0.33 PPG).
Have Rubin or Ural been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ural in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rubin and Ural runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2021, when Rubin won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rubin's record when hosting Ural specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Rubin
1
Draws
1
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Ural?
From 4 meetings on record, Rubin have won 2, Ural have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and Ural last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2024, when Rubin 1-1 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and Ural?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 50%, Ural 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Rubin and 17% for Ural.
On the defensive side: Rubin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ural in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rubin play Ural?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rubin's recent matches and 33% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rubin vs Ural usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Rubin's recent games and 17% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rubin and Ural tend to score early?
Rubin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ural in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rubin run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Ural.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Ural 4-0 at Central'nyj stadion Kazan', Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.17 xG and Ural 0.80 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Rubin beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Ural attack 0.61 / defence 1.15, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 43% | Draw 33% | Ural 24%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 33%, Ural 17%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ural's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rubin scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Ural shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.