Rubin 0-6 FC Sochi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sochi at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rubin vs FC Sochi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Rubin welcome FC Sochi to Kazan' Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Rubin have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kazan' Arena, Rubin have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sochi stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Sochi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sochi's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. FC Sochi's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Rubin's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Rubin, 0 for FC Sochi and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Rubin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rubin trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
FC Sochi trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 62% versus FC Sochi 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 54% | FC Sochi 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 0.89 xG and FC Sochi 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.846 / defence 1.267 | FC Sochi attack 0.824 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.198. Data: 26 Rubin games / 26 FC Sochi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rubin 26% | Draw 31% | FC Sochi 44%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | FC Sochi 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Sochi at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sochi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rubin 50% | FC Sochi 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs FC Sochi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Kazan' Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 26% | Draw 31% | FC Sochi 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Rubin 0.89 / FC Sochi 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.846 / def 1.267 | FC Sochi attack 0.824 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: FC Sochi (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
1.25
FC Sochi xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rubin vs FC Sochi kick off?
Rubin vs FC Sochi kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Kazan' Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs FC Sochi?
Rubin 0 - 6 FC Sochi.
Where is Rubin vs FC Sochi being played?
The match is being played at Kazan' Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs FC Sochi part of?
Rubin vs FC Sochi is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs FC Sochi?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 26% chance of winning, FC Sochi a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Sochi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs FC Sochi?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Rubin and FC Sochi will score (BTTS).
Will Rubin vs FC Sochi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and FC Sochi?
Record (1 meetings): Rubin 1W | Draws 0 | FC Sochi 0W.
What form are Rubin and FC Sochi in?
Rubin (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. FC Sochi (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rubin's attack at 0.85x the league average against FC Sochi's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sochi's attack versus Rubin's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sochi Win
26%
3.91
31%
3.25
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Rubin xG
Total xG
2.14
1.25
FC Sochi xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
7%
13.65
18%
5.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 14.7 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs FC Sochi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Rubin and FC Sochi expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Rubin and 1.25 for FC Sochi, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs FC Sochi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rubin come into this having played 26 games, going 8W 5D 13L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Sochi sit at 1.77 PPG from 26 outings (14W 4D 8L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for FC Sochi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sochi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Rubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rubin's home form reads 4W 2D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Sochi have taken 1.67 points per game from 12 outings (6W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sochi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rubin are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; FC Sochi are on 1.62 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rubin have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Blended
FC Sochi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rubin and FC Sochi in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 8W 5D 13L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while FC Sochi have gone 14W 4D 8L in their last 26 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or FC Sochi away?
FC Sochi's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.17 PPG; FC Sochi away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rubin and FC Sochi runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Rubin have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when FC Sochi won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rubin's record when hosting FC Sochi specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Rubin
1
Draws
1
FC Sochi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and FC Sochi?
From 6 meetings on record, Rubin have won 4, FC Sochi have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and FC Sochi last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when FC Sochi 0-1 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and FC Sochi?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rubin see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC Sochi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 58%, FC Sochi 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Rubin) and 58% (FC Sochi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sochi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / FC Sochi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rubin play FC Sochi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Rubin's games and 58% of FC Sochi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rubin vs FC Sochi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Rubin's matches and 58% of FC Sochi's.
Do Rubin and FC Sochi tend to score early?
Rubin have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, FC Sochi in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Sochi run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Rubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sochi beat Rubin 0-6 at Kazan' Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 0.89 xG and FC Sochi 1.25 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Rubin fell 0.9 short of their projected output. FC Sochi outscored their 1.25 projection by 4.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.85 / defence 1.27 against FC Sochi attack 0.82 / defence 0.94, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 26% | Draw 31% | FC Sochi 44%, with FC Sochi to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 54%, FC Sochi 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Sochi's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Sochi arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Rubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Sochi (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.