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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rubin edge out FC Rostov 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rubin beat FC Rostov 1-0 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.54 xG and FC Rostov 1.14 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Rostov landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 1.13 / defence 1.04 against FC Rostov attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rubin 44% | Draw 30% | FC Rostov 26%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 59%, FC Rostov 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rubin's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Rostov's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rubin 1.53 PPG, FC Rostov 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rubin win broke the near-deadlock. Rubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights