Rubin 0-4 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dynamo (42%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Rubin face Dynamo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Dynamo travel to Stadion Nizhny Novgorod to take on Rubin in Premier League (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rubin stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Rubin at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dynamo — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Dynamo away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dynamo are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Rubin's games and 60% of Dynamo's (from Rubin's last 10 home games and Dynamo's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Dynamo have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Rubin.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Dec 2023, ended Rubin 0–1 Dynamo — a Dynamo win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Dynamo have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Rubin trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Dynamo trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 46% versus Dynamo 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 39% | Dynamo 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Rubin surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Dynamo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 54% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Dynamo surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Rubin recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 1.19 xG and Dynamo 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.961 / defence 1.100 | Dynamo attack 1.081 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.235. Data: built from Rubin's last 41 games and Dynamo's last 41.
Result probabilities: Rubin 29% | Draw 30% | Dynamo 42%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 3.50 | Draw 3.36 | Dynamo 2.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rubin 60% (last 10 home games) | Dynamo 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadion Nizhny Novgorod • Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 29% | Draw 30% | Dynamo 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Rubin 1.19 / Dynamo 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.961 / def 1.100 | Dynamo attack 1.081 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Dynamo xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rubin vs Dynamo FAQs
What time does Rubin vs Dynamo kick off?
Rubin vs Dynamo kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What was the final score in Rubin vs Dynamo?
Rubin 0 - 4 Dynamo.
Where is Rubin vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What competition is Rubin vs Dynamo part of?
Rubin vs Dynamo is a Premier League fixture (matchday 12) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 29% chance of winning, Dynamo a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rubin and Dynamo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rubin vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rubin's attack at 0.96x the league average against Dynamo's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo's attack versus Rubin's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rubin's last 41 games and Dynamo's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
29%
3.50
30%
3.36
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Rubin xG
Total xG
2.66
1.47
Dynamo xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
7%
15.21
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rubin vs Dynamo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Rubin and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Rubin and 1.47 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rubin's recent record stands at 15W 12D 14L from 41 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Dynamo, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 9L across 41 games — 1.85 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rubin heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rubin have managed 7W 6D 7L from their last 20 home games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dynamo's away record stands at 8W 8D 4L across their last 20 away games, a 1.60 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Rubin are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.76 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo in 66%.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
Rubin (Home) vs Dynamo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rubin
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
❓ Rubin vs Dynamo Form FAQs
What form are Rubin and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 15W 12D 14L in their last 41 games (1.39 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 22W 10D 9L in their last 41 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or Dynamo away?
Dynamo's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.35 PPG; Dynamo away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Oct 2024, when Dynamo won Rubin 0-4 Dynamo.
Rubin's record when hosting Dynamo specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Rubin
2
Draws
6
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Rubin vs Dynamo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Dynamo?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Rubin have won 1, Dynamo have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and Dynamo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Rubin 0-1 Dynamo.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and Dynamo?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 50%, Dynamo 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Rubin) and 60% (Dynamo).
On the defensive side: Rubin have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rubin vs Dynamo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rubin and Dynamo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Rubin's games and 70% of Dynamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rubin and Dynamo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Rubin's recent games and 60% of Dynamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rubin and Dynamo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Rubin's recent matches and 80% of Dynamo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Rubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat Rubin 0-4 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.19 xG and Dynamo 1.47 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Rubin fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Dynamo outscored their 1.47 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Dynamo attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 29% | Draw 30% | Dynamo 42%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 39%, Dynamo 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.