🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Rubin edge out Dinamo Makhachkala 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rubin beat Dinamo Makhachkala 1-0 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.57 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.80 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dinamo Makhachkala landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.65 / defence 1.15, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rubin 54% | Draw 29% | Dinamo Makhachkala 17%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 57%, Dinamo Makhachkala 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rubin's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Rubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights