Rubin 3-0 Akron – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rubin at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rubin vs Akron fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Akron travel to Ak Bars Arena to take on Rubin. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rubin stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rubin at Ak Bars Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Akron have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Akron, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akron's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rubin 1.20 PPG, Akron 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Rubin, 0 for Akron and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Rubin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rubin in-play tendencies (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Akron in-play tendencies (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 53% versus Akron 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 41% | Akron 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 1.51 xG and Akron 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.870 / defence 1.129 | Akron attack 0.804 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.282. Akron bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Rubin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Rubin games / 15 Akron games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rubin 42% | Draw 33% | Akron 26%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Akron 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rubin are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Rubin 50% | Akron 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs Akron | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ak Bars Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 42% | Draw 33% | Akron 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Rubin 1.51 / Akron 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.870 / def 1.129 | Akron attack 0.804 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Rubin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Akron xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rubin vs Akron kick off?
Rubin vs Akron kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 22 November 2024 at Ak Bars Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs Akron?
Rubin 3 - 0 Akron.
Where is Rubin vs Akron being played?
The match is being played at Ak Bars Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs Akron part of?
Rubin vs Akron is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs Akron?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 42% chance of winning, Akron a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs Akron?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rubin and Akron will score (BTTS).
Will Rubin vs Akron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Akron?
Record (1 meetings): Rubin 1W | Draws 0 | Akron 0W.
What form are Rubin and Akron in?
Rubin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Akron (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Rubin vs Akron?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rubin's attack rating (0.87) and Akron's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Akron's attack versus Rubin's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rubin Win
42%
2.40
33%
3.07
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Rubin xG
Total xG
2.67
1.16
Akron xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
6%
17.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs Akron?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Rubin and Akron expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Rubin and 1.16 for Akron, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs Akron?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rubin come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 5D 7L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Akron sit at 1.12 PPG from 17 outings (5W 4D 8L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Akron is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rubin on 1.18 PPG, Akron on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rubin's home form reads 2W 3D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Akron have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Rubin are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Akron are on 1.29 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Defensively: Akron in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Blended
Akron
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rubin and Akron in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 games (1.18 PPG), while Akron have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or Akron away?
Akron's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.00 PPG; Akron away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Rubin or Akron been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Akron in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2024, when Rubin won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rubin's record when hosting Akron specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Rubin
2
Draws
0
Akron
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Akron?
From 4 meetings on record, Rubin have won 2, Akron have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and Akron last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Rubin 1-1 Akron.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and Akron?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Akron see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 44%, Akron 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Rubin) and 44% (Akron).
On the defensive side: Akron in 44%; Rubin have failed to score in 33% of games; Akron in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / Akron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rubin play Akron?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Rubin's recent matches and 33% of Akron's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rubin vs Akron usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Rubin's recent games and 44% of Akron's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rubin and Akron tend to score early?
Rubin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Akron in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rubin run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Akron.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Akron 3-0 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.51 xG and Akron 1.16 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rubin beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Akron landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.87 / defence 1.13 against Akron attack 0.80 / defence 1.28, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 42% | Draw 33% | Akron 26%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 41%, Akron 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Akron's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rubin 1.18 PPG, Akron 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rubin win broke the near-deadlock. Rubin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Akron (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.