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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rubin edge out Akhmat 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rubin beat Akhmat 1-0 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.31 xG and Akhmat 0.98 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Akhmat landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.84 / defence 0.95 against Akhmat attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rubin 42% | Draw 32% | Akhmat 26%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 51%, Akhmat 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rubin's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Akhmat's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Rubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Akhmat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights