🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Zenit run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Sochi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zenit beat FC Sochi 0-3 at Fisht Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 0.85 xG and Zenit 1.80 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Sochi fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Zenit outscored their 1.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 0.76 / defence 1.50 against Zenit attack 1.02 / defence 0.76, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 15% | Draw 27% | Zenit 58%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 69%, Zenit 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sochi's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Zenit's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.62. Form held, and they took the win. FC Sochi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights