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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lokomotiv cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over FC Sochi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lokomotiv beat FC Sochi 2-4 at Fisht Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 0.82 xG and Lokomotiv 2.00 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. FC Sochi beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lokomotiv outscored their 2.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 0.59 / defence 1.41 against Lokomotiv attack 1.41 / defence 1.04, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 13% | Draw 23% | Lokomotiv 64%, with Lokomotiv to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 68%, Lokomotiv 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sochi's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Lokomotiv's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lokomotiv arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.63. Form held, and they took the win. FC Sochi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights