FC Sochi 1-2 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Sochi at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sochi host FC Krasnodar at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Sochi have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Sochi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sochi's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 2L across 7 games at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht this term (2.14 PPG). They are averaging 2.29 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.14 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — FC Sochi are significantly better at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Krasnodar stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar away from home this season: 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (FC Sochi) versus 1.60 (FC Krasnodar). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Sochi have won 0, FC Krasnodar 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 0–3 with FC Krasnodar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Sochi in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
FC Krasnodar in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sochi 62% versus FC Krasnodar 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sochi 69% | FC Krasnodar 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sochi 1.72 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sochi attack 1.254 / defence 1.208 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.149 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.135. FC Sochi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 FC Sochi games / 16 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sochi 41% | Draw 24% | FC Krasnodar 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Sochi 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | FC Krasnodar 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Sochi are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sochi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: FC Sochi 57% | FC Krasnodar 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sochi 41% | Draw 24% | FC Krasnodar 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG FC Sochi 1.72 / FC Krasnodar 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sochi attack 1.254 / def 1.208 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.149 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: FC Sochi (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
FC Sochi xG
Expected Goals
1.57
FC Krasnodar xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht.
What was the final score in FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar?
FC Sochi 1 - 2 FC Krasnodar.
Where is FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht.
What competition is FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar part of?
FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives FC Sochi a 41% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Sochi the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar?
Record (1 meetings): FC Sochi 0W | Draws 0 | FC Krasnodar 1W.
What form are FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar in?
FC Sochi (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sochi's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against FC Krasnodar's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, FC Krasnodar's attack versus FC Sochi's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sochi Win
41%
2.44
24%
4.15
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
FC Sochi xG
Total xG
3.29
1.57
FC Krasnodar xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
8%
11.80
6%
15.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for FC Sochi and 1.57 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, FC Sochi have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 9W 1D 6L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Sochi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar's form line: 7W 4D 5L from 16 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sochi on 1.75 PPG, FC Krasnodar on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Sochi have posted 2.14 PPG from 7 outings (5W 0D 2L).
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sochi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Sochi are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.69 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sochi have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sochi
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
FC Sochi have gone 9W 1D 6L in their last 16 games (1.75 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 7W 4D 5L in their last 16 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sochi at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Sochi's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sochi at home: 2.14 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.29 PPG.
Have FC Sochi or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sochi have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Krasnodar go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2025, when FC Krasnodar won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sochi's record when hosting FC Krasnodar specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
FC Sochi
0
Draws
8
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Sochi have won 0, FC Krasnodar have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Sochi 1-2 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sochi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sochi 57%, FC Krasnodar 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (FC Sochi) and 43% (FC Krasnodar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sochi home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sochi play FC Krasnodar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FC Sochi's games and 57% of FC Krasnodar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC Sochi's matches and 43% of FC Krasnodar's.
Do FC Sochi and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
FC Sochi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Krasnodar defy the odds to beat FC Sochi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat FC Sochi 1-2 at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 1.72 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.57 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 1.25 / defence 1.21 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.15 / defence 1.14, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 41% | Draw 24% | FC Krasnodar 35%, with FC Sochi to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual FC Krasnodar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 69%, FC Krasnodar 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sochi's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sochi 1.75 PPG, FC Krasnodar 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Krasnodar win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sochi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.