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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Rostov edge out FC Sochi 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Rostov beat FC Sochi 0-1 at Fisht Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 0.84 xG and FC Rostov 1.64 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Sochi fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 0.73 / defence 1.57 against FC Rostov attack 0.92 / defence 0.83, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 17% | Draw 28% | FC Rostov 54%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 75%, FC Rostov 19%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sochi's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Rostov's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Sochi 0.69 PPG, FC Rostov 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sochi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line. FC Rostov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights