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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Sochi and Dynamo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sochi and Dynamo finished level at 1-1 at Fisht Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 0.99 xG and Dynamo 1.60 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 0.70 / defence 1.47 against Dynamo attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 3/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 22% | Draw 29% | Dynamo 50%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 100%, Dynamo 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sochi's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Dynamo's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Sochi conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights