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Baltika cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Sochi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baltika beat FC Sochi 0-2 at Fisht Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 0.93 xG and Baltika 1.70 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Sochi fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 0.70 / defence 1.37 against Baltika attack 0.96 / defence 0.85, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 19% | Draw 27% | Baltika 54%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 80%, Baltika 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sochi's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Baltika's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Sochi conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Baltika conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights