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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Akron run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FC Sochi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Akron beat FC Sochi 0-4 at Fisht Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sochi 1.20 xG and Akron 1.28 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FC Sochi fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Akron outscored their 1.28 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sochi attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Akron attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Sochi 32% | Draw 32% | Akron 36%, with Akron to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sochi 100%, Akron 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sochi's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Akron's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Sochi arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Akron winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Sochi managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Akron scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights