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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Spartak Moscow cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Orenburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spartak Moscow beat FC Orenburg 0-2 at Gazovik Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Orenburg 1.68 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.03 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Orenburg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Spartak Moscow outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Orenburg attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.16 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Orenburg 53% | Draw 24% | Spartak Moscow 23%, with FC Orenburg to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Spartak Moscow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Orenburg 49%, Spartak Moscow 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Orenburg's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Orenburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights