🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as FC Orenburg edge out Krylia Sovetov 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Orenburg beat Krylia Sovetov 1-0 at Gazovik Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Orenburg 1.67 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.82 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Krylia Sovetov landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Orenburg attack 0.87 / defence 0.99 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.78 / defence 1.41, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Orenburg 58% | Draw 24% | Krylia Sovetov 18%, with FC Orenburg to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Orenburg 48%, Krylia Sovetov 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Orenburg's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Orenburg 0.78 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Orenburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Orenburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights