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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Rostov defy the odds to beat FC Orenburg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Rostov beat FC Orenburg 1-2 at Stadion Gazovik, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Orenburg 1.40 xG and FC Rostov 1.30 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Orenburg attack 0.97 / defence 1.11 against FC Rostov attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Orenburg 36% | Draw 33% | FC Rostov 31%, with FC Orenburg to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual FC Rostov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Orenburg 47%, FC Rostov 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Orenburg's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

FC Rostov's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Rostov arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Rostov (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights