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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 21

Kick-off

Sat 15 Mar 2025

09:00

Venue

Stadion Gazovik

Competition

Premier League

Russia

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Orenburg Win

38%

FC Orenburg

2.62

35%

Draw

2.84

27%

Fakel

3.77

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.0%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

12.1%

Home win

0 – 1

9.9%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.31

FC Orenburg xG

Total xG

2.39

1.07

Fakel xG

38%
35%
27%
FC OrenburgDrawFakel

2.62

38%

Home win

2.84

35%

Draw

3.77

27%

Away win

Goals Markets

69%

Over 1.5

1.45

31%

Under 1.5

3.23

43%

Over 2.5

2.33

57%

Under 2.5

1.75

22%

Over 3.5

4.55

78%

Under 3.5

1.28

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.92

48%

BTTS No

2.08

Clean Sheet

34%

FC Orenburg

2.92

27%

Fakel

3.72

Win to Nil

13%

FC Orenburg

7.65

7%

Fakel

14.04

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.2 9.9 5.3 1.9 0.5 0.1
1 12.1 13.0 7.0 2.5 0.7 0.1
2 7.9 8.5 4.6 1.6 0.4 0.1
3 3.5 3.7 2.0 0.7 0.2
4 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1
5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.314
λ Away (xG) 1.073
Total xG 2.387
League avg home goals 1.307
League avg away goals 1.197
FC Orenburg attack strength 0.944
FC Orenburg defence strength 1.167
Fakel attack strength 0.768
Fakel defence strength 1.065
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 50 / 50