🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC Orenburg and Dinamo Makhachkala share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Orenburg and Dinamo Makhachkala finished level at 1-1 at Luzhniki Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Orenburg 1.10 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.82 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Orenburg attack 0.83 / defence 0.92 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.76 / defence 1.00, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Orenburg 40% | Draw 36% | Dinamo Makhachkala 25%, with FC Orenburg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Orenburg 52%, Dinamo Makhachkala 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Orenburg's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Orenburg 0.65 PPG, Dinamo Makhachkala 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights