🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC Sochi cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Nizhny Novgorod.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sochi beat Nizhny Novgorod 1-3 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.47 xG and FC Sochi 1.29 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Sochi outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.95 / defence 1.18 against FC Sochi attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 39% | Draw 30% | FC Sochi 31%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual FC Sochi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 58%, FC Sochi 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sochi's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nizhny Novgorod 0.97 PPG, FC Sochi 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sochi win broke the near-deadlock. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Sochi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights