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Dominant Nizhny Novgorod run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Krylia Sovetov.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nizhny Novgorod beat Krylia Sovetov 5-2 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.20 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.32 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.77 / defence 1.14 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.10 / defence 1.08, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 32% | Draw 31% | Krylia Sovetov 37%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Nizhny Novgorod win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 47%, Krylia Sovetov 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nizhny Novgorod 0.96 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nizhny Novgorod win broke the near-deadlock. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights